According to the Psychology Spot blog situational awareness is knowing what is happening around us and how to respond effectively. It involves perception, assessment, and decision-making based on the situation. Situational awareness is becoming an increasingly important skill for professionals in L&D (learning and development) roles. Where AI is concerned, situational awareness, along with up-to-date skills and knowledge in designing and delivering synchronous, asynchronous, and blended learning experiences, will influence L&D success for many years.
That seems like a very bold statement. Without situational awareness, many will regard it as marketing hype, but this article provides information that canhelp you understand the growing importance of situational awareness.
A coming 'information explosion'
According to OpenAI founder Sam Altman, evidence points to an 'intelligence explosion.' Altman says, "It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!)"—also acknowledging that "it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there."
He forecasts outcomes of super-intelligent AI in various articles and speeches:
- AIs will be personal assistants;
- Personalized education will become the norm;
- Jobs will be changing, but they will be changing more slowly than some people expect;
- We will need unprecedented amounts of AI infrastructure (compute and energy).
Altman attributes the advances of AI to "deep learning" and effective scaling. He has recently launched a new device intended to facilitate scaling on a global level, discussed in the linked YouTube video. If you watch that video, I predict that it will either inspire you or scare you to death, but it might explain why having situational awareness is so important.
Commenters, including “AI philosopher” David Shapiro, have identified constraints to that explosion other than intelligence, but the main ones come down to dollars and cents and scientific progress.
What are the biggest constraints?
Constraints affect the speed of change in everything from the nature of work to the quality of life and even to the nature and success of those changes. According to Shapiro, "Even with superintelligent AI, many industries will still face physical and logistical constraints. Matter, energy, time, space, and entropy remain fundamental limitations on progress."
Change is challenging, and none of the coming changes will happen overnight. Humans add our own constraints. Aside from money and science, it seems to me that the biggest social human constraints worldwide will be:
- Legal, political, and cultural constraints
- Upskilling and reskilling populations
- Taking appropriate action to deal with social constraints
- Understanding, developing, and applying learning science
- Becoming and remaining ethical in the treatment of people
Maybe not so fast
Potential “gaps” arise in areas where constraints exist, including:
- Humans are not emotionally or educationally prepared to work with AI
- Systems of government that make implementation difficult
- Unethical enterprise practices
- Resistance from organizations
- Funding for necessary education and support
I believe that in order for the intelligence explosion to succeed with beneficial consequences, organizations and governments will need to take care of the last four constraint gaps. L&D needs to cover the educational constraints.
All those factors will have to be dealt with over time. Situational awareness must be exercised when an intelligence explosion is discussed. The last time an explosion like this happened on this scale was in the Industrial Revolution. Situational awareness did not extend (and perhaps it has not yet extended enough) to consequences such as global warming and social and economic dysfunction, or even tragic results including the end of humankind. Our L&D role as educators this time must be in the middle of the action.
Ready to learn more?
Here are some resources that can help to fill in the picture:
- Atlantic's "The AI Boom Has an Expiration Date" by Matteo Wong
- Leopold Aschenbrenner’s paper, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"
- Wes Roth's YouTube video, "Open AI One Step Closer to Self-Improving AI" walks you through Aschenbrenner’s paper much more quickly
I believe that situational awareness is an important skill to learn and apply during the evolution of the information explosion. Whether you agree with Altman and Aschenbrenner or not, and whether or not Altman’s idea of the Worldcoin Orb scares you, take time to develop your situational awareness.