In 2016, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and its parent company, Alphabet, offered an idea that remains excellent advice for instructional developers in 2024. To paraphrase, he advocated starting development with artificial intelligence. In this article, I would like to build on that caution and add one more thought: start now and don't stop.
Where are we headed? Can we achieve AGI?
In 2024, Elon Musk said he expected AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) to exceed the intelligence of AGI to be greater than the most intelligent humans by 2026. Giving Musk’s prediction all due respect, that might be a bit optimistic for several reasons.
First, although AI's general development has been very rapid, it has been slower than expected.
Second, there are many Large Language Models (LLMs), each with specific use cases. It seems unlikely to me that there will be a Sauron's ring to rule them all.
Third, different approaches to training and ethical issues aim to eliminate undesired and harmful AI responses. These range from Anthropic's constitutional AI model to various other systems that use human feedback as a foundation.
Finally, there is the issue of cost. Training LLMs requires massive amounts of electrical power. This increases the cost of infrastructure in a way that seriously limits the number of organizations that can afford to participate in development. Meeting power requirements may also lead to environmental concerns associated with power generation.
What can individual instructional developers do about these limits?
The first step is to begin systematically following the developments and uses of AI. Despite the limitations I have outlined, AGI is on the way. It may arrive slower than next year, but a good plan for developing the familiarity and expertise needed starts now, not in 2025.
Second, start where AI is today, even if it requires more development to support all your use cases.
Next, where you are. It will take time for practitioners and organizations to be ready to employ what is available. Begin by learning to use applications that incorporate AI features relevant to your needs and have powers pertinent to your needs in 2024. Identify discernable returns on investment (ROI) for priority and selection.
Finally, test potential AI applications, and constantly evaluate your tools and their uses. When an application fails, document what you learned.
Blueprint for success
Please set up your personal knowledge management system and keep it updated weekly. Attend in-person and online conferences from the Learning Guild and expand your circle of success by meeting new colleagues.