“Those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
—John F. Kennedy
It’s the time of year when futurists, fashionistas and pundits are all telling us what’s “out” and what’s “in,” so here’s my humble, non-scientific year-end out/in list for our field. Let the arguments begin:
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Out: |
ADDIE |
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In: |
Agile |
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Good luck, agile. ADDIE has been around forever and many models before you have tried to dethrone it. |
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Out: |
Google Glass |
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In: |
Apple Watch |
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News flash to Apple Watch early adopters: Apple Watch 2 likely in 2016. Already?!?! |
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Out: |
Grades |
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In: |
Badges |
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Badges could become the new certification “currency,” but there is much still to do. |
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Out: |
Simulation |
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In: |
Gamification |
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Do I get a badge for this one? |
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Out: |
Information scarcity |
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In: |
Information abundance |
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Could too much information be bad? |
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Out: |
Content production |
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In: |
Content curation |
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We are drowning in content, much of it bad. We don’t need more as much as we need “better.” |
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Out: |
SCORM |
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In: |
xAPI |
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Finally, the potential to track more than courses. |
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Out: |
Transcripts |
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In: |
Resumes |
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xAPI will help us get here. Are you listening, LMS industry? |
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Out: |
Learning organization |
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In: |
Learning ecosystem |
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The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. |
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Out: |
Compliance |
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In: |
Certification |
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Will organizations finally focus on performance rather than attendance? Wishful thinking? |
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Out: |
Corporate technology platforms |
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In: |
B.Y.O.D. (bring your own device) |
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Could be great and liberating for learning, or could be a mess and frustrating. We’ll see. |
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Out: |
Human performance technology |
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In: |
Performance improvement |
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Even ISPI is throwing in the towel on this one. |
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Out: |
Mobile learning |
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In: |
Mobile performance support |
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Courseware on a 40mm screen on your wrist? Really? |
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Out: |
Courses |
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In: |
Apps |
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Is this the breakthrough in performance support we’ve been looking for? |
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Out: |
Target populations |
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In: |
Cyber intimacy |
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From “spray and pray” to large groups of people, to targeting “a learner of one.” |
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Out: |
Second Life |
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In: |
Work life |
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Virtual reality replaced by real reality. |
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Out: |
eLearning |
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In: |
eWorking |
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Will the fuzzy line between learning and work finally disappear? |
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Of course, none of these are truly “out” or completely “in.” We’ve been known to turn around, go backwards and restart. And you can certainly disagree with them. But I do think they are good representations of where we are and where we might be going. And while trends and predictions make for lively discussion and new thinking, they can be controversial and unreliable. A year from now, hindsight may tell a different story.
In the meantime, happy holidays. Have a great 2016.